Mexico will not send additional oil shipments to Cuba, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday, as the United States prepares steps related to Venezuelan oil and the Trump administration hardens its stance toward Havana. Sheinbaum acknowledged that, given the “current situation in Venezuela,” Mexico has become “an important supplier” of crude oil to Cuba, but she said no increase is taking place.
Speaking in Mexico City, Sheinbaum said, “no more oil is being sent than has been sent historically; there is no specific shipment.” She added that the shipments go out through “contracts” or are provided as “humanitarian aid,” but she did not offer concrete figures on the number of barrels exported.
The comments come amid Cuba’s ongoing energy problems and in the context of the decades-old U.S. embargo that followed Cuba’s 1959 revolution. Under that embargo, imposed after the nationalization of American-owned property, Cubans have endured repeated economic and energy crises, including power blackouts that can last up to eight hours and routine long lines at gas stations.
In Old Havana, José Martínez, a 65-year-old former construction worker whose power goes out daily, said the developments tied to Venezuela would affect Cuba. “The blackouts are going to intensify with all this,” Martínez told AP, adding that he believes the United States attacked because it wants Venezuela’s oil, saying, “They own the world.”
A street vendor, Yeison Gálvez, 37, said the uncertainty raises transportation worries. “For as long as I can remember, we’ve depended on Venezuela for fuel. We’re going to be walking even more,” he said, as Mexico’s role as a fuel supplier becomes a question for residents.
Officials in Mexico have avoided commenting on any future plans. AP reported that exports to Cuba represent a very small share of Mexico’s total exports—3.3%—and that the shipments’ profitability is uncertain, with Pemex’s production continuing to decline.
Data submitted by Petróleos Mexicanos to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show that from January through Sept. 30, 2025, Mexico shipped 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba, including 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products. Pemex did not immediately respond to a request from AP for data.
Jorge Piñón, an energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin who tracks shipments using oil tracking services and satellite technology, shared similar figures for the same period with AP but said his estimate was higher: 22,000 barrels per day. Piñón said that number dropped to 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in September 2025, and he reported that over the last three months, Maduro’s government exported an average of 35,000 barrels a day to Cuba—roughly a quarter of the island’s total demand. Piñón said he saw no likelihood that Mexico would increase shipments, adding: “The U.S. government would go bonkers.”
Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness said the United States would likely increase pressure involving Cuba, and that oil would predictably be among the areas under scrutiny. “There will be more pressure from the United States regarding Cuba,” Ocampo said, and he added that oil would be pressured in a foreseeable way, a view shared by other experts cited by AP.
Mexico has supplied fuel to Cuba in the past, particularly during periods of blackouts and unrest. After widespread protests in Cuba in 2021, Mexico sent one of its largest humanitarian aid shipments that included 100,000 barrels of fuel. And in October 2024, Mexico shipped more than 400,000 barrels in just a few days following serious blackouts, according to data Piñón provided at the time.
Ocampo said the structure of the shipments can make the trade harder to scrutinize. He said that the way it has been handled “incentivizes opacity,” and that since 2023, the shipments have been made via private Pemex subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar, whose finances, he said, are “not transparent.” In its report to the SEC, Pemex said shipments to Cuba were valued at approximately $400 million and described them as “sales” made through contracts at market price, but Ocampo said it could not be clearly determined whether the transactions were handled at market value or discounted, including whether a quid pro quo such as medical deployment was involved or whether they were instead humanitarian aid.
The question of supplying Cuba’s energy needs also intersects with Mexico’s own constraints. Ocampo said 2025 was set to become the year in which Pemex exported the least crude oil, with less than 600,000 barrels per day, compared with more than 1 million barrels per day a couple of years earlier.