Cuban officials lowered flags before dawn Monday to mourn 32 security officers they said were killed in a U.S. weekend strike in Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally, as residents in Havana weighed what President Nicolás Maduro’s detention means for their future.
The two governments are so tightly linked that Cuban soldiers and security agents have often served as Maduro’s bodyguards, and Venezuela’s petroleum has helped keep Cuba—an island of about 10 million people—operating through years of economic hardship. Cuban authorities said the 32 officers were killed in the attack “after fierce resistance in direct combat against the attackers, or as a result of the bombing of the facilities.”
The Trump administration has warned that toppling Maduro would help advance another decades-long goal: dealing a blow to the Cuban government. On Saturday, Trump said Cuba’s ailing economy would be further battered by Maduro’s ouster, adding, “It’s going down,” and “It’s going down for the count.”
For many Cubans, the most immediate concern is whether Venezuela’s oil will continue to reach the island. The report said many observers view Cuba’s influence over Venezuela as unusually significant, even as Cubans face long-running blackouts and shortages of basic foods. After the attack, some residents described the new uncertainty as a shift from what they once considered unthinkable.
“I can’t talk. I have no words,” 75-year-old Berta Luz Sierra Molina said as she sobbed and placed a hand over her face. Even though Regina Méndez, 63, said she is too old to join the Cuban military, she said “we have to stand strong,” adding, “Give me a rifle, and I’ll go fight.”
Cuban energy expert Jorge Piñón said Maduro’s government was shipping an average of 35,000 barrels of oil daily over the last three months, about a quarter of Cuba’s total demand, and he said the key question is whether the U.S. will allow continued supply. “The question to which we don’t have an answer, which is critical: Is the U.S. going to allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil?” he said.
Piñón noted that Mexico once supplied Cuba with 22,000 barrels of oil a day before it dropped to 7,000 after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in early September. Piñón said he does not see Mexico stepping in “right now,” saying, “The U.S. government would go bonkers.”
Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at American University, said blackouts have been significant even when Venezuela was still sending some oil, and he warned about losing that support quickly. “Imagine a future now in the short term losing that,” he said, adding, “It’s a catastrophe.” Torres and Piñón both questioned whether outside replacement supply could arrive fast enough and with the political will required.
Piñón said Cuba does not have the money to buy oil on the international market and called Russia the main remaining option, saying it sends Cuba about 2 million barrels a year. “The only ally that they have left out there with oil is Russia,” he said, while adding that he did not know whether Russia would extend help, including whether Russia would have the political commitment. Torres similarly questioned Russia’s willingness, saying, “Meddling with Cuba could jeopardize your negotiation with the U.S. around Ukraine. Why would you do it? Ukraine is far more important.”
Torres said Cuba should open its doors to the private sector and market and reduce its public sector—changes he said could help prompt China to step in and aid. “Do they have an alternative? I don’t think they do,” he said.
As the immediate oil-supply question lingered, the report also described a possible U.S. role in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry. Trump told NBC News that the U.S. government could reimburse oil companies making investments in Venezuela to maintain and increase production, and he suggested rebuilding neglected oil-extraction and shipping infrastructure could happen in less than 18 months.
Even with that possibility, the report said it remains unclear how quickly investment could occur because of uncertainty about Venezuela’s political stability and the billions of dollars needed. Trump said, “A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent,” and that oil companies would be reimbursed by the U.S. or through revenue. The report said Venezuela produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day on average, down from 3.5 million barrels a day produced in 1999, after a government takeover of most oil interests and a combination of corruption, mismanagement and U.S. economic sanctions contributed to falling output.
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