Shares of major U.S. energy companies rose broadly Monday after President Donald Trump announced plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry, saying American companies would lead a revitalization of the sector following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Oilfield services firms posted the steepest gains, while refiners and major explorers also moved higher at the opening bell.
JP Morgan analysts wrote Monday that U.S. influence over Venezuelan reserves — combined with existing American holdings — could position the United States to account for roughly 30 percent of the world’s total oil reserves. “This would mark a notable shift in global energy dynamics,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves. Its oil industry currently produces about 1.1 million barrels per day, according to the Associated Press, a figure that represents a fraction of historic output after years of neglect and international sanctions left the sector in disrepair.
Analyst caution on timeline
Some oil industry analysts said Venezuela could double or triple its current production and return to historic output levels relatively quickly. Others said the path is longer and harder.
“While the Trump administration has suggested large U.S. oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend billions to fix infrastructure, we believe political and other risks along with current relatively low oil prices could prevent this from happening anytime soon,” Neal Dingmann of William Blair wrote. Dingmann said material change to Venezuelan production will require significant time and millions of dollars of infrastructure investment.
John Freeman of Raymond James identified additional variables shaping the timeline: how quickly a new government takes hold in Caracas, and how fast and willing multinational oil companies are to reenter the country.
Any investment in Venezuelan infrastructure would occur against a weakened energy market. Crude prices in the U.S. are down about 20 percent compared with the prior year, according to the AP. Benchmark U.S. crude has not been priced above $70 per barrel since June 2025 and has not reached $80 per barrel since the summer of 2024.
Market moves at the opening bell
Refiners posted the strongest immediate gains. Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 each rose between 5 and 6 percent at the opening bell, according to the AP.
Venezuela produces heavy crude oil needed for diesel fuel, asphalt, and fuels for heavy equipment. Diesel has been in short supply globally because of sanctions on oil from Venezuela and Russia, and because lighter American crude cannot easily substitute for it. Refiners capable of processing heavy crude stood to benefit most directly from any increase in Venezuelan supply.
Oilfield services companies — those that perform drilling and maintenance work in the field — rose more steeply. SLB and Halliburton each gained between 7 and 8 percent at the opening bell. Major oil explorers ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips rose between 2 and 4 percent.
Potential scale of U.S. energy position
The shale oil revolution established the United States as the world’s largest crude producer. ExxonMobil and Chevron already largely control major oil finds off the coast of Guyana. JP Morgan analysts wrote that if U.S. companies gain control of the Venezuelan energy industry — which sits atop the world’s largest reserves — the combined holdings could give the United States “more control over oil market trends, helping to stabilize prices and keep them within historically lower ranges.”
The bank described any such shift as contingent on consolidation of American influence actually occurring, and acknowledged the near-term uncertainty that other analysts flagged. The U.S. action is unlikely to have an immediate impact on crude prices given the current supply glut in the market, the AP reported.