Holiday shopping this year has already moved from the Christmas gift rush into the return-and-deal period, with early indicators pointing to a shift in where people shop and how closely they decide what to buy. Visa’s Consulting & Analytics division and Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that spending using cash or cards through Sunday has topped last year’s pace, even as some shoppers show growing unease about the economy and higher prices that are tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
One of the clearest changes so far is that more of the activity appears to be flowing to thrift stores and other discount formats rather than to traditional stores. Placer.ai, which tracks movements using cellphone location data, said the patterns are consistent with consumers looking for post-holiday deals while staying more closely to shopping lists and doing more research ahead of purchases.
Thrift and discount traffic rises while traditional store traffic lags
Placer.ai said traffic for “traditional gift giving” still includes spending on gifts, but shopping is increasingly taking place at thrift and discount stores rather than malls. The firm said department stores and other conventional retailers are being pushed to compete harder for customers, and it pointed to uneven performance across categories that typically drive holiday demand.
Placer.ai said clothing and electronics saw a surge but struggled to grow, and it described those goods as especially vulnerable to tariffs because both are dominated by imports. In its traffic comparison, Placer.ai said department store traffic doubled in the week before Christmas—between Dec. 15 and Sunday—relative to the average shopping week, but still fell 13.2% in the week before Christmas this year compared with 2024.
The firm also described off-price and resale options as capturing some of the momentum. It said traditional sellers of only clothing had a 61% seasonal traffic increase in the week before the holiday compared with the rest of the year, but that the run-up still slid 9% compared with last year. Placer.ai said some of the lost traffic may have migrated to “off-price stores” such as TJ Maxx, and it reported a seasonal traffic bump of 85.1% at those chains and a 1.2% gain in the week before the holiday.
Thrift stores, however, showed the sharpest holiday pull in Placer.ai’s traffic numbers, with traffic jumping nearly 11% in the week before Christmas compared with last year. In a blog post Friday, Shira Petrack, head of content at Placer.ai, said the behavior reflected consumers favoring “discovery-driven experiences” over “the standardized assortments of traditional retail.”
Second-hand shopping broadens appeal beyond earlier stereotypes
Placer.ai also said thrift stores are drawing a wider range of shoppers than in earlier years. It attributed the broader appeal in part to economic uncertainty and rising prices, and it suggested environmental concerns are also playing a role in luring more Americans to second-hand stores.
The firm reported that in the second half of 2025, thrift stores saw at least a 10% increase in traffic compared with last year. It added that thrift traffic generally does not peak during the holidays, but it cited a notable exception: it said foot traffic jumped 5.5% during the most recent Black Friday weekend.
Looking at earlier in the season, Placer.ai said that in November—when traffic in traditional apparel stores fell more than 3%—thrift stores’ traffic “soared” 12.7%. The firm said the move is also changing thrift-store demographics, and it cited demographic data assembled by STI:PopStats combined with Placer.ai’s location data.
Placer.ai reported that the average household income of thrift customers reached $75,000 during October and November of this year, slightly above $74,900 in the prior year and above $74,600 in 2023, according to the demographic data it referenced. It also reported growth at a major thrift chain: U.S. sales at Savers Value Village rose 10.5% in the three months ended Sept. 27, and it said momentum continued through October based on store executives’ comments.
Mark Walsh, the CEO of Savers Value Village, told analysts that “High household income cohort continues to become a larger portion of our consumer mix,” and he added, “It’s trade down for sure, and our younger cohort also continues to grow in numbers.”
Returns dip early, then are expected to climb late December
While the shopping shift may reflect price sensitivity, Adobe Analytics’ early return data suggests fewer purchases are being sent back so far. Adobe said that for the first six weeks of the holiday season, return rates have dipped from the same period a year ago, and it framed the shift as a sign that shoppers are both researching more and adhering to their shopping lists more carefully.
Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said the pattern is “very indicative of consumers and how conscientiously they’ve purchased,” adding that “Many of them are being very specific with how they spend their budget.”
Adobe reported that from Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, returns fell 2.5% compared with last year. It said that after Cyber Week—the five shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—returns fell 0.1% over the following seven days.
Adobe also said the early season looked relatively strong for online commerce. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, Adobe reported that online sales rose 6% to $187.3 billion and were on track to surpass its outlook for the season.
Still, Adobe warned that returns are likely to rise later as the calendar turns to late December. The company said between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31, returns are expected to increase by 25% to 35% compared with the returns between Nov. 1 and Dec. 12. It added that it expects returns to stay elevated through the first two weeks of January, up 8% to 15%.
Adobe said this is the first year it has tracked returns using its approach. Even so, it said the biggest concentration of returns historically comes in the last week of December: it said that in the 2024 holiday season, one out of every eight returns took place between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31, and it said a similar pattern is expected to persist this year.